Brexit: May should invoke Article 50 ‘within weeks’, says John Whittingdale
Scary headlines are coming thick and fast for those of us who are not exactly excited about Brexit, in fact many people are thinking it’s all over for Brexit bar a few minor details.
But it’s not, not by a long chalk.
Whittingdale can huff and puff, Redwood can agitate that we should just send a letter to the EU and walk away, polls can be quoted, the Express can have shouty headlines like “Trigger Article 50 and stop all these delays over Brexit”.
None of it amounts to anything. The PM cannot trigger article 50 and start the negotiation process until the legal challenge currently underway runs its course sometime in December when the inevitable appeals are heard. It’s currently 50-50 perhaps that the Courts will decide an Act of Parliament is required. Even then, May has already said she won’t trigger Article 50 until early in the new year.
It may even start later as “Ministers are now thinking the trigger could be delayed to autumn 2017,”, not only because of the Elections happening in Europe but because the Brexit departments in the UK just can’t get the staff and may not be ready until then.
Then we have the 2 year Article 50 process itself, and the associated trade negotiations.
Once these are under way, surely there is no turning back? Well, lets make no mistake, triggering A50 is a big deal politically as a statement of intent however, it’s at least evens that we could back out – withdraw our intention to leave – if (when) negotiations started going badly – and return to full EU membership.
That means 3 years – potentially almost 3 years before Brexit can move beyond the point of no return.
6 months, maybe 18, maybe even 36, for all of us to help reveal the foolishness and lack of credibility of this activity.
Anyone who is in a position of knowledge and/or authority or even an MP (it appears the latter doesn’t necessarily imply the former these days) should know this, and therefore anyone who tries to imply anything different can safely be dismissed as a blusterer or an idiot.
And anyone trying to rush things through before we are ready to start negotiating is putting their ideology above the national interest.
So, the next time we see Redwood or the Express or the Mail or anyone shouting “Brexit now, get on with it” – just see it for what it is, a desperate attempt to create noise & distraction and to keep momentum going for Brexit, in the absence of any real progress by the departments involved. And why?
Because they are all worried about the emerging picture, the interventions by Japan, the inevitable impact on the economy from the uncertainty. And so they are looking to create enough noise to distract people from realizing that Brexit is really very,very silly.
Let’s not let them. This is just the beginning.
P.S. just a personal theory, but you may be wondering why May has introduced the controversial idea of Grammar schools when she has such a slim majority. Why introduce something that has such a high chance of creating division and heat at a time like this? It’s almost like the time Osborne announced the (now failed) Academies plan, at the end of a badly flawed and ultimately rejected budget